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Share Price

The share price represents the USDC value of each vault share. It fluctuates based on the vault’s performance and is the key metric for LP returns.

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How Share Price Works

When you deposit USDC, you receive shares based on the current share price: 
Shares Received = Deposit Amount / Share Price
When you withdraw, your shares are redeemed at the current price: 
USDC Received = Shares × Share Price

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Share Price Calculation

The share price is calculated in real-time: 
Share Price = LP Equity / Total Shares

Where:
LP Equity = Total Assets - Net Risk - Held Stakes

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Components

ComponentDescription
Total AssetsUSDC in vault + Aave deposits
Net RiskProbability-weighted expected payout to bettors
Held StakesCounter parlay stakes (held but excluded from LP equity)
Total SharesAll outstanding LP shares

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What Moves Share Price?

Increases Share Price

  • Fees collected from bets
  • Bettors losing (favorable P&L)
  • Aave yield accrual

Decreases Share Price

  • Large payouts to winners
  • Unfavorable P&L

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Neutral Events

These do NOT change share price:
  • New LP deposits (receive shares at current price)
  • LP withdrawals (redeem at current price)
  • Bet placement (assets and liabilities change equally)

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Mark-to-Market (MTM) Valuation

The vault uses real-time probability-weighted valuation: 
Expected Payout = Σ (Position Payout × Current Probability)
Net Risk = Total Liabilities - Expected Payout
This means:
  • If odds shift in favor of bettors → Net Risk increases → Share price drops
  • If odds shift against bettors → Net Risk decreases → Share price rises
Share price updates continuously based on live odds feeds, not just when bets settle.

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Example

Scenario: $1,000,000 vault with 1,000,000 shares Initial state:
  • Share price: $1.00
  • Total assets: $1,000,000
  • Net risk: $0
After a day of betting:
  • Fees collected: $3,000
  • Net favorable P&L: $2,000
  • New total assets: $1,005,000
New share price: 
$1,005,000 / 1,000,000 = $1.005
LPs earned 0.5% return that day.

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Checking Share Price

On the LP page, you can see:
  • Current Share Price - Real-time value
  • Your Shares - How many you own
  • Your Value - Shares × Share Price
  • Historical Performance - Share price over time

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Important Considerations

Share price can decrease if bettors win big. LP returns are not guaranteed and depend on overall betting outcomes.

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Timing Deposits/Withdrawals

  • Deposit when share price is stable or you believe the vault will profit
  • Withdraw when you want to lock in gains or reduce exposure
  • Share price at transaction time determines your rate

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Long-Term View

Over time, the fee structure and house edge typically favor LPs:
  • 0.3% base fee on all volume
  • Dynamic fees that scale with risk
  • Diversification across thousands of markets
However, short-term variance from large winners can cause temporary drawdowns.