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Removing the Spread (De‑juicing)
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Sports Betting
Removing the Spread (De‑juicing)
Here we will discuss the backend math of our odd calculations.
Suppose a sportsbook offers Team A at +120 and Team B at −145.
Implied probabilities:
For +x odds:
p
=
100
/
(
x
+
100
)
p = 100/(x+100)
p
=
100/
(
x
+
100
)
For -y odds:
p
=
y
/
(
100
+
y
)
p = y/(100+y)
p
=
y
/
(
100
+
y
)
Thus:
p
A
∗
=
100
/
(
120
+
100
)
≈
45.45
p^*_A = 100/(120+100) \approx 45.45%
p
A
∗
=
100/
(
120
+
100
)
≈
45.45
%
p
B
∗
=
145
/
(
145
+
100
)
≈
59.18
p^*_B = 145/(145+100) \approx 59.18
p
B
∗
=
145/
(
145
+
100
)
≈
59.18
%
p
A
∗
+
p
B
∗
=
104.63
p^*_A + p^*_B = 104.63
p
A
∗
+
p
B
∗
=
104.63
% → embedded vig
Normalize (de-juice):
p
A
=
p
A
∗
/
(
p
A
∗
+
p
B
∗
)
≈
43.44
p_A = p^*_A/(p^*_A+p^*_B) \approx 43.44%
p
A
=
p
A
∗
/
(
p
A
∗
+
p
B
∗
)
≈
43.44
%
p
B
=
p
B
∗
/
(
p
B
∗
+
p
A
∗
)
≈
56.56
p_B = p^*_B/(p^*_B+p^*_A) \approx 56.56
p
B
=
p
B
∗
/
(
p
B
∗
+
p
A
∗
)
≈
56.56
%
Converted back to American odds, this is roughly +131 and -131.
What Problem Do We Solve?
Matching Orders & Liquidity
⌘I